73% — Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
Leader: Todd Blanche at 73% · Kalshi 73% · 2 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 06:32:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Todd Blanche is currently priced at 62% to become Trump's next Attorney General, with Lee Zeldin at 17% as the runner-up. Blanche's elevated probability likely reflects his prominence as a Trump legal representative and recent visibility. The outcome hinges on Trump's appointment decision, which could occur during his term depending on vacancy circumstances or staffing transitions. Key catalysts include actual departures or announcements from current or future DOJ leadership. Market participants are pricing in Blanche's odds based on perceived proximity to Trump's inner circle and litigation experience. Resolution will occur when Trump formally announces or nominates his choice for the Attorney General position.

Key factors:
- Blanche holds substantial recent legal representation experience for Trump across multiple cases
- Lee Zeldin's 17% pricing reflects his established political background and prior Trump administration service
- No scheduled announcement date is publicly known; resolution depends on when a vacancy or staffing change occurs
- Market volume of $16,133 in 24-hour trading on the Blanche contract indicates moderate information flow but concentrated betting
- Competing candidates including DeSantis, Zeldin, and Pirro collectively hold 27% implied probability, showing meaningful alternative possibilities

Contracts:
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche — 73¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 97%)
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin — 6¢ Kalshi $641 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T06:20:51.305Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextag
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Trump's%20next%20Attorney%20General
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev