20% — Will Marc Sumerlin be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Kalshi 20% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:30 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Marc Sumerlin will become President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta within the next 3.5 years. The current 18% assessment suggests the market views him as a plausible but not leading candidate among several options. The main factors driving this level are Sumerlin's existing position within the Federal Reserve system, his track record, and the timing of when the current Atlanta Fed president's term may conclude or end. Competition from other candidates, particularly Michael Faulkender (trading at 36¢), suggests the market perceives stronger credentials or higher likelihood for other contenders. The resolution will ultimately depend on when a vacancy occurs at the Atlanta Fed and how decision-makers evaluate candidates against the broader pool. Any major policy decisions or statements from the Federal Reserve's leadership selection process would likely shift these probabilities significantly.

Key factors:
- Current Atlanta Fed president's anticipated departure date or end-of-term status
- Sumerlin's prior career trajectory, positions held, and policy track record relative to competing candidates
- Market probability for Faulkender at 36¢ suggests at least one alternative candidate is viewed as substantially more likely
- Distribution across five candidates shows no dominant frontrunner, indicating genuine uncertainty about the succession
- Any public statements or signals from the Federal Reserve Board regarding selection criteria or timeline

Contracts:
- Will David Altig be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030?: David Altig — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Michael Faulkender be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030?: Michael Faulkender — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Marc Sumerlin be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030?: Marc Sumerlin — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Paula Tkac be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030?: Paula Tkac — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.728Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextatlfed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Marc%20Sumerlin%20be%20the%20next%20President%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20Bank%20of%20Atlanta%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev