6% — Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee Kalshi 6% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 5% probability that David Hogg, the gun-control activist, will become the next Democratic National Committee Chair. The current low probability reflects that Hogg lacks traditional party infrastructure credentials and elected office experience typically required for the role, while other candidates like Amanda Litman and Jason Paul command similar odds. The probability could shift upward if Hogg pursues elected office or gains a formal DNC leadership position beforehand, or downward if the party prioritizes candidates with extensive political experience. The position becomes vacant when the current chair departs or when the DNC holds a leadership election, typically following major electoral cycles. Contract pricing suggests substantial uncertainty, with no single candidate commanding dominant odds. Key factors: - Hogg has no elected political office or previous DNC leadership experience as of June 2026 - Competing candidates like Litman and Jason Paul hold similar 5% probabilities, indicating market sees no clear frontrunner - DNC Chair selection typically requires party voting structures or election mechanics not yet officially scheduled - Hogg's public profile is primarily tied to advocacy and media appearances rather than party-building or fundraising roles - At least five distinct candidates with measurable contract odds suggests fragmentation rather than consensus around any particular successor Contracts: - Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Ben Wikler — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jane Kleeb — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Malcolm Kenyatta be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Malcolm Kenyatta — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Artie Blanco be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Artie Blanco — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Martin O’Malley — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Amanda Litman — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Faiz Shakir — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Jon Tester be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jon Tester — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.809Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextdncchair Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20David%20Hogg%20be%20the%20next%20Chair%20of%20the%20Democratic%20National%20Committee Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev