95% — When will the next hurricane form
Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $824 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 16:30:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets estimate a 68% probability that a hurricane will form before October 1, 2026. This reflects expectations about Atlantic basin activity during the peak portion of hurricane season, which typically runs June through November. The probability is driven by seasonal meteorological patterns, historical frequency of hurricane formation by early October, and current atmospheric conditions. The main factor pushing expectations higher is that we are entering late August, when sea surface temperatures peak and tropical cyclogenesis becomes more common. The biggest near-term catalyst will be the actual track and formation of tropical systems over the next 8-55 days; any observed hurricane formation immediately settles the question, while a prolonged absence of hurricane development would lower the probability. Current trading volume concentrates on the Aug 15 date, suggesting near-term tropical activity is a focal point for market participants.

Key factors:
- Atlantic sea surface temperatures in August-September 2026 and their deviation from historical norms
- Observed formation of tropical depressions or storms between now and October 1, which may or may not intensify to hurricane status
- Position and intensity of African tropical waves, Bermuda high pressure system, and other steering mechanisms affecting Atlantic basin wind shear
- Historical climatology showing hurricane formation rates by specific dates within the 2026 Atlantic season
- Resolution timeline: any confirmed hurricane formation before Oct 1 settles the leading contract at 100%, while the contract expires on Oct 1 if no hurricane has formed

Contracts:
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Oct 15, 2026 — 94¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 30%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Nov 15, 2026 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Sep 15, 2026 — 80¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 16%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the next hurricane form?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 25¢ Kalshi $440 (weight 53%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T16:20:52.158Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nexthurdate
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20the%20next%20hurricane%20form
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev