22% — Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Kalshi 22% · 3 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 19:21:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that Naftali Bennett becomes Israel's Prime Minister following the next election. Bennett, a former Prime Minister who led a short-lived coalition government until 2022, faces significant political obstacles in returning to office. The probability reflects his current position in Israeli politics—no longer holding the premier role but maintaining a coalition party with parliamentary representation. The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are the fragmented Israeli political landscape and competition from other coalition figures, particularly Avigdor Lieberman who markets show at higher probability. The outcome hinges on the timing and composition of the next election, which would determine coalition possibilities and Bennett's negotiating leverage. Key resolution points include actual election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, which typically occur months after voting.

Key factors:
- Bennett currently leads Yamina party with roughly 6-7 seats in Knesset, lower than competitors like Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu
- His previous coalition collapsed in 2022 after internal divisions, affecting his credibility for future coalition leadership
- Market prices for Bennett show 37¢ on Polymarket, higher than his 14% aggregated Kalshi pricing, indicating disagreement across prediction venues
- The next Israeli election date remains unscheduled; current government stability affects timing and therefore coalition possibilities
- Lieberman and Eizenkot appear higher-probability alternatives in available markets, suggesting voters or analysts favor other coalition partners over Bennett

Contracts:
- Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Gadi Eisenkot — 42¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 100%)
- Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Israel Katz — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Naftali Bennett — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T19:20:50.386Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextisraelpm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Naftali%20Bennett%20be%20the%20next%20Prime%20Minister%20of%20Israel
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev