38% — Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor Leader: Keith Sonderling at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 4 contracts · $74 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 11:28:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor, currently priced at 38%. The outcome depends on Trump's nomination decisions and Senate confirmation, with the identity of the leading candidate and any competing candidates materially affecting the probability. The market is concentrated around one frontrunner, while the runner-up sits at just 5%, indicating significant consensus. The main drivers would be changes in Trump's stated preferences, withdrawal of candidates, or shifting political dynamics that alter confirmation prospects. The resolution will occur when Trump makes an official nomination announcement and the Senate votes on confirmation, likely occurring in the coming months depending on personnel timelines and legislative schedules. Key factors: - The leading contract holds approximately 7.6x the probability of the runner-up contract (38% vs 5%), suggesting strong market consensus around one candidate rather than uncertainty distributed across multiple contenders - Trading volume on the Attorney General contracts ($16k-$4k daily) substantially exceeds Secretary of Labor volume, indicating less market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads affecting price accuracy - No specific announcement date or nomination timeline is publicly confirmed, leaving the exact resolution timeframe uncertain and potentially extending over several months - The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means the 38% reflects the combined likelihood that this specific individual both receives nomination and passes Senate confirmation - Market prices reflect December 2024-May 2026 information; any statements Trump has made about labor policy preferences or personnel considerations would directly impact probability movement Contracts: - Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Keith Sonderling — 38¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 100%) - Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Riley Moore — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Andrew Puzder — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Patrick Pizzella — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:50.928Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextlaborsec Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Trump's%20next%20Secretary%20of%20Labor Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev