30% — Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence Leader: Aaron Lukas at 30% · Kalshi 30% · 7 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-24 23:05:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Aaron Lukas currently leads the field at 29% probability to become Trump's next Director of National Intelligence, though the market is fragmented across seven candidates with no overwhelming favorite. Devin Nunes trails closely at 26%, suggesting uncertainty about Trump's intelligence leadership priorities. The outcome depends on Trump's personnel philosophy—whether he prioritizes loyalists with existing relationships like Nunes and Mike Flynn, or prefers candidates with intelligence community credentials like Lukas or Elise Stefanik at 18%. Ongoing developments in intelligence policy, classified information handling debates, and Trump's stated security priorities will likely influence these probabilities. Resolution timing remains uncertain, as director appointments typically occur during transition periods or vacancies, making this an extended-duration event where trader conviction remains moderate given the wide distribution of odds across candidates. Key factors: - Aaron Lukas and Devin Nunes are separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating traders view them as genuinely competitive rather than one being dominant - Combined probability of all seven candidates totals 100%, with no single candidate commanding majority support, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the selection process - Kalshi volume is concentrated in top three candidates (Lukas, Nunes, Stefanik), suggesting lower conviction on remaining options - The 11-point gap between the leader (29%) and runner-up (22%) is narrow relative to winner-take-all stakes, indicating high residual uncertainty - Mike Flynn and Amaryllis Fox Kennedy combined represent only 11% probability despite their political profiles, suggesting market skepticism about their likelihood Contracts: - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Aaron Lukas — 30¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 37%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Devin Nunes — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 21%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Michael Ellis — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Mike Flynn — 7¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Elise Stefanik — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 26%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Richard Grenell — 5¢ Kalshi $224 (weight 2%) - Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: John Ratcliffe — 3¢ Kalshi $446 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-24T22:20:07.118Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextodni Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Trump's%20next%20Director%20of%20National%20Intelligence Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev