97% — Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $66K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:02:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 15% probability that Darline Graham Nordone will be elected as South Carolina's Class 2 U.S. Senator by January 4, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects that she faces significant competition in what appears to be an open-seat race. The 2026 general election in November will be the primary determinant, with voter preferences, candidate resources, and turnout patterns shaping the outcome. Her current market price of 5 cents, combined with minimal trading volume ($16 in 24 hours), suggests limited market conviction compared to other candidates like Pamela Evette (45 cents). The resolution will occur on January 4, 2027, when either she or another candidate takes the Senate seat.

Key factors:
- Pamela Evette holds a substantially higher implied probability (45%) as a leading Republican candidate, indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner
- Darline Graham Nordone's contract shows minimal liquidity ($16 daily volume) compared to other candidates, suggesting low trader confidence in her candidacy
- The November 2026 general election serves as the definitive catalyst—voter turnout and preference distribution will directly determine whether she wins the seat
- Nikki Haley, despite being at 6 cents, retains a historical political profile that may attract market attention despite lower current probability
- South Carolina's voting patterns and demographic composition will influence both primary (if applicable) and general election dynamics in this open-seat race

Contracts:
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027?: Darline Graham Nordone — 97¢ Kalshi $66K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T21:20:51.334Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextscsenator
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Darline%20Graham%20Nordone%20be%20the%20next%20the%20Class%202%20U.S.%20Senator%20from%20South%20Carolina%20before%20Jan%204%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev