29% — Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House
Kalshi 29% · 3 contracts · $29 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC

Why this matters:
This 31% probability reflects the likelihood that Steve Scalise becomes Speaker of the House in the current congressional term. Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, previously served as House Majority Leader before health issues led to his resignation in 2024. The current probability balances his established leadership credentials and relationships within Republican caucuses against significant uncertainty about whether a Speaker vacancy will occur and whether he would be the consensus choice among Republicans if one did. Factors affecting this estimate include shifts in Republican party dynamics, potential challenges to current leadership, and Scalise's health status and future political ambitions. The most immediate catalyst would be any formal announcement regarding current Speaker tenure or Scalise's stated intentions regarding a leadership bid.

Key factors:
- Steve Scalise's current political status and whether he maintains active involvement in House leadership decisions following his 2024 resignation
- Current Speaker's political stability and the probability of a Speaker vacancy occurring before the next congressional session
- Consensus among House Republican members—Scalise would need broad support from both centrist and conservative factions to secure the position
- Competing candidates and their relative strength in a potential Speaker election, which would directly impact Scalise's path to the role
- Scalise's public statements or actions indicating whether he is actively pursuing or has ruled out a Speaker candidacy

Contracts:
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?: Hakeem Jeffries — 72¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 100%)
- Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?: Jim Jordan — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?: Steve Scalise — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.109Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextspeaker
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Steve%20Scalise%20be%20the%20next%20Speaker%20of%20the%20House
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev