53% — Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State
Leader: No other person at 53% · Kalshi 53% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 53% probability indicates that markets currently assess it as more likely than not that Trump's next Secretary of State will be someone other than the four primary candidates represented in the contract set. The market reflects uncertainty about whether Trump will select from a known group of contenders or choose someone outside this predetermined pool. Key drivers of this probability include the lack of clear public signals about Trump's preference, the relatively low trading volumes suggesting moderate participant confidence, and the spread of remaining probability across competing candidates. The main resolution catalyst would be Trump's official announcement of his cabinet appointment, which typically occurs in the transition period following a confirmed election result.

Key factors:
- The leading contract (KXNEXTSTATE-29-NONE at 53%) trades substantially higher than any individual named candidate, suggesting material uncertainty about whether the Secretary of State will come from the identified pool
- Trading volume remains modest ($16K-$24K across top contracts in 24 hours), indicating this market has not attracted consensus opinion or heavy institutional participation
- Related cabinet positions show clearer frontrunners—the Attorney General market concentrates 64% on Todd Blanche—suggesting the Secretary of State selection is either genuinely more contested or less publicly telegraphed
- The contract structure as a four-outcome winner-take-all creates mechanical pressure toward 'none of the above' if no single named candidate achieves clear preference clarity
- Cabinet announcement timing depends on electoral confirmation status and transition logistics, introducing timing uncertainty that could extend resolution well beyond initial expectations

Contracts:
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: No other person — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Ric Grenell — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Robert O'Brien — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Bill Hagerty — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextstate
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Trump's%20next%20Secretary%20of%20State
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev