31% — What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team
Leader: Minnesota at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 4 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 22:15:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents traders' estimate that Seattle will be Aroldis Chapman's next team, currently at 5% probability. Chapman, the veteran left-handed reliever, remains free to sign with any MLB franchise. The low probability reflects either limited market interest, competing offers from other teams, or Chapman's selective preferences regarding destination. Key drivers moving this probability up would include public reports of Seattle's negotiating interest or Chapman's stated preference for the Pacific Northwest. Movement downward could result from Chapman signing elsewhere or announcing intentions to join a different organization. The primary uncertainty resolver will be Chapman's actual signing announcement, which typically occurs during the offseason or early spring training period, though timing remains unpredictable. Until that point, market pricing reflects the perceived likelihood relative to other destination outcomes across all available contracting combinations.

Key factors:
- Chapman's current free-agent status and active market interest from multiple teams
- Historical patterns of Chapman's team choices and any publicly reported preference signals
- Competitive offers from other franchises and their relative probability weightings
- Timing of free-agent signings, which typically occur in waves rather than predictably
- Market volume and contract activity on this specific outcome relative to other player destinations

Contracts:
- What will be Joe Ryan's next team?: Minnesota — 31¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%)
- What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: Los Angeles D — 25¢ Kalshi $384 (weight 26%)
- What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: Milwaukee — 11¢ Kalshi $941 (weight 63%)
- What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: New York Y — 8¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 11%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T21:20:49.718Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextteammlb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20Aroldis%20Chapman's%20next%20team
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev