65% — What will be Auston Matthews's next team
Leader: Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 15 contracts · $475 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Auston Matthews will sign with the Chicago Blackhawks as his next NHL team. The 51% probability reflects market participants' assessment of Chicago's positioning relative to other potential destinations. The level is primarily driven by two factors: Chicago's known salary cap flexibility and apparent willingness to pursue elite forwards, and Matthews's uncertain free agency timeline and stated preferences. The contract's resolution depends on Matthews's next team move, which will be determined when he either signs a new contract with Toronto, becomes an unrestricted free agent (currently under contract through 2024-25), or is traded. This prediction will crystallize once Matthews's employment situation changes, likely during an offseason period or trade deadline window.

Key factors:
- Matthews remains under contract with Toronto through 2024-25 season; his availability status is the primary determinant of whether he reaches free agency
- Chicago has demonstrated significant salary cap space and recent investment in star-level talent, making them a credible landing spot if Matthews becomes available
- Competing contracts show Toronto retention at 48% probability, indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether Matthews stays with his current team
- Trading volume on this contract is relatively low ($250 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market conviction and potentially incomplete information about Matthews's preferences
- Resolution depends on external events (trade deadline actions, free agency window timing, or contract negotiations) rather than performance metrics

Contracts:
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires — 65¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Columbus Blue Jackets — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Boston Bruins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Carolina Hurricanes — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Chicago Blackhawks — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Minnesota Wild — 7¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 28%)
- What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Anaheim Ducks — 6¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 16%)
- What will be Dylan Larkin's next team?: New Jersey Devils — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T23:20:49.671Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextteamnhl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20Auston%20Matthews's%20next%20team
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev