23% — Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Kalshi 23% · 4 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the current market estimate that Yvette Cooper will become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. At 11%, traders are pricing her as a significantly lower probability candidate compared to other potential successors. The assessment reflects factors including her current political standing within the Labour party, the timing and circumstances under which the next transition might occur, and historical patterns of UK leadership succession. The probability would move higher if she gained additional senior roles or demonstrated increased party support, or lower if other candidates consolidated backing or she faced political setbacks. The resolution of this question depends substantially on when the next Prime Ministerial transition occurs and the competitive dynamics among potential Labour successors, which remains uncertain given the current political cycle.

Key factors:
- Labour party internal positioning and whether Cooper maintains or expands her role as a potential successor to Keir Starmer
- Overall viability of Labour remaining in power through the next general election, which affects the pool of potential Prime Ministers
- Comparison to competing candidates' market probabilities and their relative backing from party members and MPs
- Track record and public polling of other senior Labour figures who might be considered for the role
- Timing of the next general election or unexpected circumstances that might trigger an earlier leadership transition

Contracts:
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Ed Miliband — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 54%)
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Andy Burnham — 68¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 41%)
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Wes Streeting — 3¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 5%)
- Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Angela Rayner — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.680Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nextukpm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Yvette%20Cooper%20be%20the%20next%20Prime%20Minister%20of%20United%20Kingdom
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev