90% — Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Polymarket 90% · 1 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:46:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This 81% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Neymar will be included in Brazil's roster for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The estimate balances Neymar's status as a star player against injury concerns and competition for limited squad spots. His fitness level and performance for his club leading up to the tournament represent the primary factors moving this probability. The squad announcement by Brazil's coach—typically occurring in the weeks before the tournament—will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract, though signs of injury or reduced playing time beforehand could shift expectations significantly earlier.

Key factors:
- Neymar's injury history and current physical condition, which directly affects his availability and selection likelihood
- His club performance and playing time during the 2025-2026 season, which coaches typically use as primary selection criteria
- Brazil's midfield and attacking depth, determining whether squad slots prioritize experience versus emerging talent
- Official squad announcement by Brazil's coach in late 2026, which definitively settles the outcome
- Any significant injury occurrence in the months immediately preceding the World Cup selection

Contracts:
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup? — 90¢ Polymarket $19K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.267Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/neymar-play-world-cup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Neymar%20play%20in%20the%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev