10% — Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship Kalshi 10% · 9 contracts · $24K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 04:11:28 UTC Why this matters: This 9% probability indicates market participants estimate a 1-in-11 chance Indianapolis wins the AFC Championship this season. The Colts' odds reflect their position as a mid-tier contender; significantly stronger teams like Buffalo (14%) and weaker teams like Houston, New England, and Cincinnati trade at similar levels, suggesting compressed probabilities across multiple AFC franchises. The main drivers of Indianapolis's probability are their roster composition, recent performance trends, and injury status heading into the 2026 season. Uncertainty will resolve gradually throughout the season via wins, losses, playoff positioning, and injuries to key players, with the AFC Championship game itself scheduled for early January 2027 as the ultimate resolution event. Market activity remains modest at current pricing levels. Key factors: - Indianapolis's regular season win-loss record and playoff positioning from September-December 2026 will be the primary real-time indicator of championship likelihood - Key player injuries, particularly to the quarterback and defensive positions, would directly impact the probability's direction - Head-to-head performance against other AFC contenders like Buffalo, Houston, and Cincinnati throughout the season will establish relative strength and affect odds - The team's trading activity at the NFL deadline in late October could signal organizational confidence and influence market perception - Starting quarterback performance metrics (completion percentage, turnover rate, wins above replacement) will correlate with playoff probability adjustments Contracts: - Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Cincinnati — 8¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 36%) - Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Denver — 8¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 16%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 9¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%) - Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Baltimore — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Buffalo — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Jacksonville — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Houston — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Los Angeles C — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T03:20:50.667Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflafcchamp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Indianapolis%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20AFC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev