24% — Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Kalshi 24% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that the New York Jets finish first in the AFC East division during the 2026 NFL season. At 31%, it suggests the Jets are considered competitive but not favorites for the division title. The probability is influenced by roster composition, recent performance trends, and strength of schedule compared to division rivals like the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the NFL regular season from September through December 2026, where head-to-head performance against division opponents directly determines the final standings. Injuries to key players, coaching decisions, and trades before the September start would also meaningfully shift expectations.

Key factors:
- Jets' win-loss record against other AFC East teams during the 2026 regular season (Sep-Dec 2026) directly determines division outcome
- Quarterback performance and availability, particularly for the Jets' starting QB compared to division rivals' quarterbacks
- Off-season roster moves and free agent signings completed before the 2026 season begins
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players heading into and during the regular season
- Head-to-head strength metrics including playoff experience and recent historical performance of the Jets versus Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins

Contracts:
- Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Miami — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 85%)
- Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Buffalo — 55¢ Kalshi $158 (weight 13%)
- Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 2%)
- Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New York J — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.151Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflafceast
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20York%20J%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20AFC%20East%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev