32% — Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:14:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This 24% probability reflects the market's assessment that Pittsburgh has roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the AFC North division title in the 2026 NFL season. The Steelers trail Cincinnati (33%) and Baltimore (45%) in current market odds, suggesting traders view them as less likely to secure the division. Pittsburgh's probability is driven by its roster composition, recent performance trajectory, and how it compares to divisional rivals entering the season. The primary catalyst affecting this probability will be actual game results through the 2026 regular season, with early-season performance and key injury developments likely to shift expectations significantly. Week 1-4 divisional matchups and roster health status represent the near-term events most likely to clarify whether Pittsburgh's division prospects improve or deteriorate from current market levels.

Key factors:
- Pittsburgh's win-loss record in divisional games during the 2026 regular season directly determines whether the 24% probability holds or shifts
- Quarterback and key offensive skill position player availability and performance against division rivals affects competitive positioning
- Baltimore's 45% and Cincinnati's 33% market probabilities indicate traders expect those teams to more likely capture the division; Pittsburgh would need to outpace both to reach 50%+
- Head-to-head results in Pittsburgh versus Baltimore and Cincinnati matchups carry outsized importance for tiebreaker scenarios
- Trade deadline moves (deadline occurs mid-season) involving any of the four division teams could materially alter playoff positioning and divisional winner probability

Contracts:
- Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore — 52¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 56%)
- Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Pittsburgh — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 43%)
- Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati — 29¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 1%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:52.677Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflafcnorth
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Pittsburgh%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20AFC%20North%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev