23% — Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Kalshi 23% · 4 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:44:59 UTC

Why this matters:
Pittsburgh has a 25% estimated probability of winning the AFC North Division in the 2027 NFL season. This reflects their position among division rivals Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, with all four teams competing for a single division title. The probability is influenced by roster strength, quarterback performance, and recent competitive trends within the division. The season's outcome will depend on how the team addresses offseason needs through the draft and free agency, injury management during the 2026 season, and head-to-head matchup results against division opponents. The AFC North will be decided through the 2026 regular season and playoffs, with the division winner determined by win-loss record and tiebreaker procedures in late December 2026 and early January 2027.

Key factors:
- Pittsburgh's quarterback situation and offensive line health compared to Baltimore's established roster and Cincinnati's recent competitive trajectory
- Draft and free agency acquisitions made by all four division teams during the 2026 offseason period
- Win-loss records accumulated through the 2026 regular season, particularly head-to-head divisional matchups scheduled between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland
- Injury rates and roster stability maintained by Pittsburgh relative to other AFC North teams across the 2026 season
- Coaching and defensive performance consistency, which significantly impacts single-division competition outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Pittsburgh — 9¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 96%)
- Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore — 42¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 2%)
- Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati — 34¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 1%)
- Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cleveland — 5¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T08:20:07.887Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflafcnorth
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Pittsburgh%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20AFC%20North%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev