5% — Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year Kalshi 5% · 12 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 13:33:56 UTC Why this matters: This represents the market's estimate that Sean McVay has a 23% chance of winning the NBA Coach of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The relatively modest probability reflects that while McVay is a respected coach, other candidates appear to have stronger cases based on current contract pricing. Joe Mazzulla trades at 94 cents, suggesting he's the clear favorite, while several other coaches trade higher than McVay's implied odds. The award typically goes to coaches who achieve significant regular-season success, particularly those whose teams exceed preseason expectations or show substantial improvement. The probability could shift based on McVay's team performance through the remainder of the season and how his results compare to competing candidates' records. The award will be determined in late April 2026 following the regular season's conclusion, at which point voters will assess each candidate's full body of work. Key factors: - Joe Mazzulla's contract trades at 94 cents versus McVay's 23-cent implied probability, indicating market consensus that Mazzulla is significantly favored - McVay's team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to preseason expectations will be central to voting considerations - Coaching award voters typically reward teams that exceed expectations or show dramatic year-over-year improvement rather than consistent winners - Contract volume and pricing suggest the market has limited conviction in McVay's candidacy compared to frontrunners - The award is determined by voting following the regular season ending in April 2026, with final standings and records being the primary evaluation criteria Contracts: - Will Kellen Moore win the Coach of the Year?: Kellen Moore — 8¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 51%) - Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year?: Sean McVay — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%) - Will Joe Brady win the Coach of the Year?: Joe Brady — 4¢ Kalshi $556 (weight 7%) - Will Kevin O'Connell win the Coach of the Year?: Kevin O'Connell — 4¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 6%) - Will John Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year?: John Harbaugh — 11¢ Kalshi $313 (weight 4%) - Will Liam Coen win the Coach of the Year?: Liam Coen — 3¢ Kalshi $302 (weight 4%) - Will Jim Harbaugh win the Coach of the Year?: Jim Harbaugh — 5¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 3%) - Will Ben Johnson win the Coach of the Year?: Ben Johnson — 4¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 2%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T13:20:50.247Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflcoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sean%20McVay%20win%20the%20Coach%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev