12% — Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year
Kalshi 12% · 6 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:57 UTC

Why this matters:
An 8% probability suggests roughly a 1-in-12 chance that Micah Parsons wins NFL Comeback Player of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability reflects that Parsons has not publicly announced a significant injury or absence requiring a major comeback narrative—the award typically goes to players returning from serious injuries or extended time away. For this probability to move meaningfully higher, Parsons would need to either suffer a substantial injury during the 2026 season and return to form, or there would need to be unexpected circumstances creating a comeback storyline. The award winner will be determined by NFL voters after the regular season concludes in early January 2027. Market comparison shows Tucker Kraft (8¢) and Patrick Mahomes (33¢) trading at similar or higher levels, suggesting uncertainty about which player's narrative will dominate comeback discussions.

Key factors:
- Parsons' current health status and whether he sustains a season-altering injury during the 2026 NFL season
- The strength of competing comeback narratives, particularly Mahomes' injury recovery or Kraft's availability changes
- Trading volume remains minimal ($6 in 24h volume), indicating limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- Historical CPOY voting patterns and whether defensive players are typically selected over offensive players in the same year
- Parsons' on-field performance metrics and statistical recovery rate if he does sustain and return from injury

Contracts:
- Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Patrick Mahomes — 48¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 52%)
- Will Fred Warner win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Fred Warner — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%)
- Will Malik Nabers win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Malik Nabers — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%)
- Will Aaron Donald win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Aaron Donald — 3¢ Kalshi $305 (weight 4%)
- Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Kyler Murray — 3¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 2%)
- Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Daniel Jones — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:50.977Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflcpoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Micah%20Parsons%20win%20the%20Comeback%20Player%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev