91% — Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Leader: 32+ total wins at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 20 contracts · $98 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 08:15:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract tracks whether the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and Detroit Lions will combine for at least 28 wins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The 83% probability reflects market confidence that this relatively modest total is likely to be reached. The NFC North's recent trajectory matters considerably: the Lions have been competitive, while the Packers and Bears have shown inconsistent performance. Division strength typically hinges on injury rates, quarterback play, and trade deadline acquisitions. The outcome becomes clear only after the final games in early January 2027, though the division's playoff positioning by December will signal whether the win total is within reach. Comparison markets suggest similar divisions are viewed less favorably—the AFC North sits at 72% for the same 28-win threshold—indicating scouts may view the NFC North as structurally stronger.

Key factors:
- Historical NFC North win totals: the division averaged 26-27 combined wins in recent seasons; reaching 28 requires above-trend performance
- Injury impact on key players: significant losses to starting quarterbacks, running backs, or defensive stalwarts at any team could reduce collective output by 2-4 wins
- Regular season length and structure: the 2026-27 season follows standard 17-game format; strength of schedule affects win likelihood across the three teams
- Playoff contention dynamics: teams fighting for postseason spots tend to win more in final weeks, inflating totals in compressed schedules
- Trade deadline acquisitions: adding proven talent in mid-season can shift individual team win projections by 1-3 games collectively

Contracts:
- Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC West record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 28+ total wins — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC West record at least 32 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 32+ total wins — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC West record at least 30 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 30+ total wins — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 34 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 34+ total wins — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the teams in the NFC West record at least 34 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 34+ total wins — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.289Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldivisionwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20teams%20in%20the%20NFC%20North%20record%20at%20least%2028%20total%20wins%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev