30% — Will the teams in the AFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Leader: NFC North at 30% · Kalshi 30% · 3 contracts · $179 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 08:03:01 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This 21% probability indicates that market participants believe the AFC West has roughly a one-in-five chance of accumulating more regular-season wins than any other NFL division during the 2026-27 season. The AFC West's probability reflects the strength of its constituent teams—particularly the Kansas City Chiefs' sustained competitive advantage—but also acknowledges that other divisions, like the NFC North and NFC East, have comparable roster depth and recent performance. The market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty: the runner-up (NFC North at 10%) shows that no division is heavily favored to lead in total wins. The outcome will depend on injury developments before the season, trade activity and free-agent acquisitions through March 2027, and how coaching changes across divisions affect team performance. Final resolution occurs after the 2026-27 regular season concludes in early 2027, when total divisional wins can be definitively calculated. Key factors: - Kansas City Chiefs' playoff track record and offseason roster moves relative to AFC West competitors - Injury status and availability of star quarterbacks and key defensive players across AFC West teams heading into September 2026 - Free-agency and trade decisions by AFC West teams compared to rival divisions, particularly the NFC North and NFC East - Recent regular-season win totals for each division: AFC West teams' combined wins in 2025-26 versus historical averages for competing divisions - Schedule difficulty: strength of schedule for AFC West teams relative to NFC North and NFC East in 2026-27, which affects win probability variance Contracts: - Will the teams in the NFC North have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: NFC North — 30¢ Kalshi $179 (weight 100%) - Will the teams in the AFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: AFC West — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the teams in the NFC West have the most total wins out of any division in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: NFC West — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T07:20:50.337Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldivmostwins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20teams%20in%20the%20AFC%20West%20have%20the%20most%20total%20wins%20out%20of%20any%20division%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev