7% — Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year Kalshi 7% · 9 contracts · $669 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:03:07 UTC Why this matters: This represents the implied probability that Nick Bosa will be named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season. At 4%, the market is pricing Bosa as a long-shot candidate, suggesting traders believe other defenders are more likely to earn the award. DPOY voters typically favor players with dominant statistical seasons—sack leaders, tackle records, or game-changing interception totals—combined with team success. Bosa's probability is constrained by several factors: competition from established elite pass rushers, the requirement for standout individual production across the full 17-game season, and the historical tendency for voters to recognize multiple different players rather than the same winner repeatedly. The 2026 NFL season will provide the statistical record determining DPOY eligibility, with voting occurring in early 2027 following the playoffs. Changes to this probability would track Bosa's actual performance metrics throughout the season, injuries to competing candidates, and his team's overall defensive ranking. Key factors: - Bosa must rank among league leaders in sacks or other measurable defensive statistics during the 2026 regular season to be seriously considered - Players from playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders historically have higher DPOY win rates, making San Francisco's performance relevant - DPOY voting occurs post-season in early 2027, so the market probability may shift substantially based on 2026 regular season performance data - Competition includes multiple established pass rushers and elite defensive players, diluting any single candidate's probability - Injuries to Bosa or other top defensive candidates during the season would be a significant catalyst for probability movement Contracts: - Will Myles Garrett win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Myles Garrett — 20¢ Kalshi $495 (weight 74%) - Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Will Anderson Jr. — 11¢ Kalshi $116 (weight 17%) - Will T.J. Watt win the Defensive Player of the Year?: T.J. Watt — 3¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 6%) - Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Aidan Hutchinson — 11¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 2%) - Will Abdul Carter win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Abdul Carter — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brian Burns win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Brian Burns — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Christian Wilkins win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Christian Wilkins — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ed Oliver win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Ed Oliver — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:48.829Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldpoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nick%20Bosa%20win%20the%20Defensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev