9% — Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year
Kalshi 9% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 10:19:26 UTC

Why this matters:
Nick Bosa's 8% probability reflects market expectations that he will not win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. This probability sits below several competing defensive players, notably Will Anderson Jr. at 12%, suggesting Bosa faces stiff competition. Bosa's chances depend on his individual defensive statistics this season—sack totals, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles—relative to other elite edge rushers and interior defenders. The award typically rewards either exceptional pass-rush productivity or dominant run-stopping performance. The 2026 NFL season performance and final statistical comparisons among elite defenders will determine the outcome, with the award announcement occurring in early 2027. Current market pricing suggests oddsmakers view other defenders as more likely to produce the elite numbers historically required for this honor.

Key factors:
- Bosa's 2026 season sack and tackle-for-loss totals relative to other defensive ends and edge rushers
- Competition from higher-probability candidates like Will Anderson Jr. (12¢) and Aidan Hutchinson (9¢) who may accumulate comparable or superior statistics
- Historical DPOY voting patterns favoring either dominant pass-rush production (15+ sacks) or exceptional interior defensive line performance
- Injuries to Bosa or other top candidates during the 2026 season, which would shift probability distributions across the market
- Team success and visibility—DPOY voting is sometimes influenced by playoff seeding and national exposure despite being an individual award

Contracts:
- Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Will Anderson Jr. — 12¢ Kalshi $939 (weight 46%)
- Will Aidan Hutchinson win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Aidan Hutchinson — 11¢ Kalshi $716 (weight 35%)
- Will Myles Garrett win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Myles Garrett — 16¢ Kalshi $343 (weight 17%)
- Will T.J. Watt win the Defensive Player of the Year?: T.J. Watt — 3¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 1%)
- Will Abdul Carter win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Abdul Carter — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T09:20:51.673Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldpoty
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev