15% — Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft Kalshi 15% · 11 contracts · $31 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 02:21:30 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 6% probability that the New York Jets will receive the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft. The Jets typically only secure this pick by finishing with the worst record in the league during the 2026 season. The probability reflects the Jets' current roster construction and early-season expectations. Key factors include the Jets' performance through the 2026 regular season (which determines draft position through week 18), injuries to key players that could affect competitive balance, and the strength of schedule relative to other struggling teams. The primary resolution event is the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings determine draft order. Until then, the probability will likely fluctuate based on team performance, trade activity, and updated injury information that affects playoff contention across the league. Key factors: - Jets' win-loss record relative to other NFL teams through the 2026 season determines draft position - Significant injuries to key roster players could either worsen or improve their competitive standing - Trades or roster moves that materially change team strength around the deadline - Strength of schedule analysis for remaining 2026 games relative to other bottom-standing teams - Performance of other teams considered likely draft order competitors in early 2026 Contracts: - Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J — 29¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 61%) - Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona — 34¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 23%) - Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland — 6¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 16%) - Will Carolina make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Carolina — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Detroit make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Detroit — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Green Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Green Bay — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Houston make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Houston — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Las Vegas make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Las Vegas — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.694Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraft1st Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20York%20J%20make%20the%201st%20Overall%20Pick%20in%20the%202027%20Pro%20Football%20Draft Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev