36% — Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3 Kalshi 36% · 5 contracts · $434K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 14:44:47 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 38% chance that the University of Texas will have more players selected in the first three rounds of the next NFL Draft than any other college program. The probability reflects Texas's recent recruiting success and on-field performance, particularly following a College Football Playoff National Championship run. Key factors include the team's roster depth at premium draft positions, injury status of key players, and how other traditional powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State perform in the upcoming season. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual NFL Draft itself, where team selection patterns and player performance will determine the final count. Texas's draft position will depend heavily on which players declare for the draft versus returning for another college season, a decision typically announced in January following the conclusion of bowl games. Key factors: - Texas roster composition in premium positions (QB, WR, pass rush) relative to competing schools - Injury status of top Texas prospects heading into draft evaluation period - Portal additions and departures affecting Texas player count versus competitor schools - Performance of competing programs (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State) in securing draft-eligible talent - Early NFL evaluation projections published by major scouting outlets through January draft declaration deadline Contracts: - Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton — 39¢ Kalshi $324K (weight 75%) - Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico — 60¢ Kalshi $101K (weight 23%) - Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Texas — 14¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 2%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Hinojosa, 3+ pts — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T14:20:52.151Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftcompare Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20be%20the%20school%20with%20the%20most%20players%20drafted%20in%20rounds%201%2C%202%2C%20and%203 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev