27% — Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3 Kalshi 27% · 6 contracts · $70K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 16:16:06 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether the University of Texas will have more players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft than any other school. At 23%, this reflects a moderate but below-even probability, suggesting analysts expect other programs to more likely lead in early-round draft production. Texas football has generated significant talent in recent years, but the outcome depends on how many current Longhorns enter the draft, their evaluated positions, and how many competitors' players also enter. The NFL Draft typically occurs in late April each year, serving as the resolution point. Factors that could shift this probability include unexpected early declarations for the draft from Texas players, injuries affecting draft stock, or changes in other schools' draft participation rates as early entries are announced in the months leading up to the event. Key factors: - The total number of Texas players declaring for the 2026 draft in early rounds versus historical averages for the program - Comparative draft productivity of other major programs (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, etc.) in the same draft class - Whether key Texas prospects declare early or return to school, affecting the school's representation in rounds 1-3 - Average draft position and round estimates for Texas prospects as pre-draft evaluations are published - Historical patterns showing Texas's typical draft representation relative to other Power Conference schools Contracts: - Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton — 59¢ Kalshi $56K (weight 80%) - Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico — 41¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 11%) - Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Texas — 11¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 9%) - Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas — 13¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 0%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-24T15:20:50.566Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftcompare Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20be%20the%20school%20with%20the%20most%20players%20drafted%20in%20rounds%201%2C%202%2C%20and%203 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev