14% — Will Chase Bisontis be the 3rd Offensive Lineman (Offensive Tackle, Guard, or Center) drafted Kalshi 14% · 13 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:12:02 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Chase Bisontis will be the third offensive lineman selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. At 18%, the market suggests it's unlikely but possible he lands in that specific tier. The main drivers are draft board positioning relative to other offensive line prospects and whether teams address the position early. Teams' actual draft behavior, as they make selections leading up to and around the relevant picks, represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. The market will calibrate substantially based on mock draft patterns and any injuries or performance changes among competing offensive linemen through the remainder of the pre-draft process. Key factors: - Current offensive lineman talent pool depth and relative rankings of prospects competing for early selection slots - Number of offensive linemen projected to go in Round 1 versus Rounds 2-3, which directly determines the field of potential third selections - Teams' demonstrated need and priority for offensive line versus other positions as reflected in pre-draft reporting and trade activity - Individual performance and athletic testing results at the NFL Combine and pro days that could shift prospect valuations - Previous draft patterns showing typical distribution of offensive linemen selections by position type (tackle vs. guard vs. center) Contracts: - Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 14¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 26%) - Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%) - Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 18%) - Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love — 18¢ Kalshi $541 (weight 6%) - Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 18¢ Kalshi $416 (weight 4%) - Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon — 6¢ Kalshi $391 (weight 4%) - Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion — 3¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 4%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:50.520Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftol Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chase%20Bisontis%20be%20the%203rd%20Offensive%20Lineman%20(Offensive%20Tackle%2C%20Guard%2C%20or%20Center)%20drafted Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev