15% — Will Spencer Fano be drafted before pick 10.5 in 2026 Kalshi 15% · 5 contracts · $136K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:09 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects the probability that Spencer Fano will be selected in the 2026 NFL Draft before the 10th overall pick, currently estimated at 19%. The aggregate probability combines pricing from two venues with modest divergence, suggesting limited consensus on whether Fano will merit a top-10 selection. The 19% level indicates most participants view this outcome as unlikely, consistent with the possibility that scouts rank other prospects higher or that Fano's draft position falls outside the designated range. The NFL Draft in late April 2026 will definitively resolve this question, making pre-draft performance metrics, team workouts, and final mock drafts the primary drivers of probability shifts in the weeks before the event. Key factors: - Fano's combine performance metrics and on-field measurements compared to other top prospects at his position - Positional depth and team needs at pick 10.5, which determines whether a team prioritizes Fano or alternative prospects - Mock draft consensus from major scouting outlets and official NFL team signals regarding Fano's projected range - Injury status and any medical red flags disclosed during the pre-draft evaluation period - Trading activity and team movements up or down the draft board that could alter which organizations have access to the 10.5 pick Contracts: - Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 9¢ Kalshi $97K (weight 71%) - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $39K (weight 29%) - Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Spencer Rattler be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Spencer Rattler — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.178Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftou Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Spencer%20Fano%20be%20drafted%20before%20pick%2010.5%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev