30% — Who will be picked 7th in the Pro Football Draft
Leader: Arch Manning at 30% · Kalshi 30% · 6 contracts · $210 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 32% probability indicates market participants view Arch Manning as the most likely selection for the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. This assessment reflects expectations about team needs, player performance during the college season, and draft evaluation consensus. The current level is driven by Manning's pedigree, perceived readiness for professional play, and the assumption that the team holding the top pick will prioritize quarterback prospects. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on how Manning's performance compares to other elite quarterback prospects during the 2026 college football season, as well as any signals from the team with the first pick about their draft strategy. The market will resolve when the NFL Draft concludes in spring 2027, at which point the actual selection will determine the outcome. Until then, uncertainty remains around competing quarterback prospects, team circumstances, and coaching staff preferences.

Key factors:
- Arch Manning's on-field production and decision-making accuracy during the 2026 college football season
- Comparative performance and NFL-readiness assessments of competing QBs like Dante Moore (15% current price) and CJ Carr (7%)
- The identity and stated needs of the team holding the first overall pick heading into spring 2027
- Any major injuries or statistical breakdowns by Manning or other top-tier quarterback prospects
- Changes in team draft priorities signaled through free agency, coaching hires, or public statements between now and April 2027

Contracts:
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning — 30¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 11%)
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore — 15¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 18%)
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr — 8¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 50%)
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith — 6¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 21%)
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:50.983Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftpick
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20picked%207th%20in%20the%20Pro%20Football%20Draft
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev