3% — Will Taylen Green be the 2nd Quarterback drafted
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:31 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Taylen Green will be selected second overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. At 3%, the market considers this outcome unlikely relative to other quarterback prospects. The current low probability likely reflects uncertainty about Green's draft position amid competition from other highly-rated quarterback prospects and questions about team needs at that pick. The primary catalyst for movement would be Green's on-field performance during the 2026 college football season and how his draft stock evolves relative to other quarterback prospects. Additionally, news about which teams hold early picks and their potential quarterback needs would inform market expectations about the likelihood of a quarterback going second overall versus other positions.

Key factors:
- Taylen Green's performance metrics during the 2026 college football season relative to other top quarterback prospects
- The identity and reported quarterback needs of teams holding the first and second overall picks in 2027
- Evaluations from NFL scouts and draft analysts regarding Green's readiness and fit for pro-level play
- Whether quarterback-needy teams prioritize reaching for Green at second or wait for later picks
- Historical draft patterns showing how often quarterbacks are selected in the top two positions versus other positions

Contracts:
- Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Green Bay — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.111Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftqb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Taylen%20Green%20be%20the%202nd%20Quarterback%20drafted
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev