12% — Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted Kalshi 12% · 5 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-26 13:54:51 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 13% chance that Michael Trigg will be selected as the third tight end off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft. The probability reflects forecasts about draft positioning based on Trigg's performance trajectory, team needs, and how other tight end prospects develop. The market would move higher if Trigg demonstrates elite production in pre-draft evaluations or if other competing tight ends underperform, and lower if additional prospects establish themselves as top-tier options. The primary resolution event will occur during the 2026 NFL Draft when teams make their tight end selections in sequence. Current pricing suggests moderate conviction that other tight ends will be drafted ahead of Trigg, though substantial uncertainty remains about how scouts and general managers will ultimately rank the position class. Key factors: - Trigg's on-field performance metrics (yards, touchdowns, blocking efficiency) compared to other prospect tight ends through the 2025 college season - How many tight ends are selected in the first two rounds before Trigg, which directly determines his draft-order position - Performance of competing tight end prospects in bowl games, combine workouts, and draft evaluations leading up to April 2026 - Team draft capital and expressed need at tight end among clubs selecting in rounds 1-3 - Changes to Trigg's draft stock following injury, performance decline, or off-field developments that alter evaluator consensus Contracts: - Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley — 6¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 100%) - Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Michelle Bolsonaro — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Ronaldo Caiado — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-26T13:20:51.148Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftte Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Michael%20Trigg%20be%20the%203rd%20Tight%20End%20drafted Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev