15% — Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:03:08 UTC Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 21% probability that Michael Trigg will be selected as the third tight end in an upcoming draft. The current market price reflects uncertainty about his draft positioning relative to other tight end prospects. Key drivers of this probability include his performance metrics compared to other top tight end prospects, team needs and draft capital allocation at the tight end position, and pre-draft evaluations from professional scouts. The primary resolution point will be the actual draft results, which determine the final order of tight end selections and confirm whether Trigg finishes exactly third among all players at his position selected. Key factors: - Trigg's performance statistics and athletic measurements compared to primary tight end competitors (measurables drive draft order) - The number of teams selecting tight ends before the draft point where Trigg is expected to go (affects how many tight ends are already drafted) - Pre-draft ranking consensus from major scouting services and mock drafts (indicates professional consensus on his tight end ranking) - Team draft strategy and tight end depth chart needs of franchises holding early picks (determines actual selection behavior) - Injury status and performance changes for competing tight end prospects between now and draft day (alters relative evaluations) Contracts: - Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Michael Bennet — 54¢ Kalshi $30K (weight 98%) - Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley — 13¢ Kalshi $462 (weight 2%) - Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise — 8¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 0%) - Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos — 6¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Michelle Bolsonaro — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.883Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftte Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Michael%20Trigg%20be%20the%203rd%20Tight%20End%20drafted Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev