58% — Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted by Los Angeles R
Leader: Los Angeles D at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 4 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 26% probability that Francis Mauigoa will be selected by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 NFL Draft. The market price reflects uncertainty about whether the Rams will prioritize Mauigoa among available defensive options in their draft class. Key drivers of the probability include Mauigoa's draft ranking relative to other prospects, the Rams' stated needs and draft strategy, and their current roster composition. The primary resolution event is the NFL Draft itself, scheduled for late April 2026, when the Rams will make their selections. Prior to draft day, movements in this contract would likely follow: updates to Mauigoa's evaluation metrics, reported Rams front office interest, mock drafts featuring Mauigoa to Los Angeles, and trades that alter the Rams' draft position or priorities. The relatively modest probability suggests market participants view other defensive prospects as more likely targets for the team at available draft slots.

Key factors:
- Mauigoa's projected draft position versus the Rams' actual draft picks in 2026
- Public reporting on Rams coaching staff and scouts' interest in Mauigoa specifically
- Changes to Rams roster needs due to free agency signings or injuries before the draft
- Mauigoa's performance metrics and any injuries affecting draft-day evaluations
- Mock draft consensus and Rams draft history with similar prospect profiles

Contracts:
- Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles D — 58¢ Kalshi $373 (weight 2%)
- Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D — 29¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 37%)
- Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles R — 15¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 58%)
- Will Los Angeles C win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles C — 4¢ Kalshi $476 (weight 3%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:51.183Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftteam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Francis%20Mauigoa%20be%20drafted%20by%20Los%20Angeles%20R
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev