31% — Will Miami draft a quarterback in Rounds 1, 2, or 3 Kalshi 31% · 6 contracts · $866 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:52 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chances Miami selects a quarterback in the first three rounds of the 2027 NFL Draft. At 25%, it suggests the market views quarterback selection as possible but not the primary need. The main drivers are Miami's current quarterback depth chart and draft capital position. If Miami's existing signal-callers underperform significantly in 2026, draft interest could rise; conversely, a strong quarterback performance would lower it. The resolution comes at the 2027 NFL Draft in April 2027, but meaningful signals will emerge during the 2026 NFL season as the team's performance and front office messaging clarify their true needs and priorities. Key factors: - Miami's 2026 regular season performance and quarterback performance will directly inform whether the team prioritizes a QB replacement in 2027 - The team's draft capital entering 2027 matters—teams with early picks are more likely to address quarterback, while later picks often target other positions - Trade activity before the draft could shift Miami's available picks and their ability to reach specific quarterback prospects in rounds 1-3 - Public statements from Miami's head coach and general manager throughout 2026 will signal organizational confidence or concerns about the current QB room - The strength and timing of the 2027 quarterback prospect class relative to other draft needs will influence whether a QB selection makes sense in rounds 1-3 versus later rounds Contracts: - Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Miami (FL) — 6¢ Kalshi $866 (weight 100%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1?: Malik Willis — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Miami — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:50.741Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldraftteampos Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miami%20draft%20a%20quarterback%20in%20Rounds%201%2C%202%2C%20or%203 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev