14% — Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year Kalshi 14% · 9 contracts · $905 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:03:08 UTC Why this matters: This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Rueben Bain Jr. will win the NBA Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views him as a long-shot candidate, likely due to competition from other talented defensive rookies or uncertainty about his role and minutes in his team's system. Key factors pushing this estimate up or down include his actual playing time and defensive impact once the season begins, how his statistics compare to other rookie defenders, and whether his team values him in crucial defensive matchups. The award winner is determined after the regular season concludes and voters decide, which will occur in spring 2027 once sufficient performance data accumulates. Key factors: - Rueben Bain Jr.'s actual defensive statistics and playing time during the 2026-2027 NBA regular season relative to competing rookie defenders - The distribution of votes among multiple defensive rookie candidates—a concentrated field of strong defenders would keep his chances lower than a fragmented one - His team's defensive scheme and whether he receives minutes in high-leverage situations versus limited bench role usage - Voter perception shifts as the season progresses, influenced by media coverage and highlight-reel performances in nationally televised games - Comparison of his advanced defensive metrics (steals, blocks, defensive rating, plus-minus) to other nominees in the final voting stage Contracts: - Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs — 18¢ Kalshi $330 (weight 37%) - Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 26%) - Will Zion Young win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Zion Young — 16¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 17%) - Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese — 17¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 4%) - Will Akheem Mesidor win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Akheem Mesidor — 8¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 4%) - Will David Bailey win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: David Bailey — 13¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 4%) - Will Mansoor Delane win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Mansoor Delane — 8¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 4%) - Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Sonny Styles — 16¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 4%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:50.691Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfldroty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rueben%20Bain%20Jr.%20win%20the%20Defensive%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev