20% — Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs
Leader: 2027-28 season at 20% · Kalshi 20% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that the New York Jets return to the playoffs in the 2028-29 season at 11%, making it the most probable outcome among the five-season window. The relatively low probability across all timeframes reflects the team's competitive challenges and the difficulty of winning consistency in the NFL. Market participants are pricing in structural hurdles the organization must overcome, including roster construction, coaching effectiveness, and competitive positioning within a difficult division. The distribution across years suggests meaningful uncertainty about the team's trajectory rather than consensus on near-term recovery. Key drivers include quarterback performance, front-office decision-making, and divisional competition, particularly from established playoff contenders. Regular season performance and draft outcomes over the next 1-2 years will substantially clarify which timeframe becomes most realistic.

Key factors:
- Jets' current playoff drought duration and recent win-loss records relative to division standings
- Quarterback development and contract situation, including performance metrics and offensive line performance
- Strength of schedule and divisional opponents' likely competitive strength in 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons
- Draft capital allocation and front-office roster construction decisions in upcoming offseasons
- Historical playoff probability for NFL teams in mid-to-low win-rate scenarios versus market consensus on Jets' improvement trajectory

Contracts:
- Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2027-28 season — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2028-29 season — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2030-31 season — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Which season will the New York J next make the playoffs?: 2029-30 season — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:55.534Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflendstreak
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20season%20will%20the%20New%20York%20J%20next%20make%20the%20playoffs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev