6% — Will Joe Schoen win the Executive of the Year Kalshi 6% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:25 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Joe Schoen, the New York Giants' General Manager, has a 4% chance of winning NFL Executive of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views Schoen as unlikely to be selected among the year's top GM candidates. Key factors driving this assessment include the Giants' recent performance trajectory, whether significant roster improvements materialize during the 2026 season, and how Schoen's personnel decisions compare to peers like Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay) and Ryan Poles (Chicago), who have higher probabilities in the market. The award will be determined following the 2026 NFL season, typically announced in early 2027, based on factors including team improvement, draft success, free agency moves, and overall executive performance. Resolution depends on both the Giants' on-field results and voters' perception of Schoen's strategic decisions relative to other front-office executives. Key factors: - Giants' 2026 regular season win-loss record and whether it significantly exceeds 2025 performance - Quality and production impact of Schoen's 2026 draft picks and free agency acquisitions - Comparison of Giants' front-office moves to competing GMs (Gutekunst, Poles, others) in franchise trajectory and player development - Market perception of Schoen's handling of quarterback situation and roster composition heading into season - Award voting timeline and pattern in Executive of the Year selection, typically favoring GMs of over-performing teams in January 2027 Contracts: - Will Andrew Berry win the Executive of the Year?: Andrew Berry — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Howie Roseman win the Executive of the Year?: Howie Roseman — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Ian Cunningham win the Executive of the Year?: Ian Cunningham — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will John Lynch win the Executive of the Year?: John Lynch — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will John Schneider win the Executive of the Year?: John Schneider — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Mickey Loomis win the Executive of the Year?: Mickey Loomis — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:11.941Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflexecoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Joe%20Schoen%20win%20the%20Executive%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev