44% — CeeDee Lamb scores more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 2026-27 regular season Kalshi 44% · 20 contracts · $97 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:05 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates a 42% chance that CeeDee Lamb finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown. The market currently favors St. Brown slightly, reflected in the 50¢ contract price on the inverse outcome. Lamb's probability is shaped by his role in the Dallas Cowboys' offense and his historical scoring consistency, while St. Brown's slight edge reflects his high target volume and red-zone involvement with the Detroit Lions. The resolution depends entirely on comparative performance across the full 17-game regular season, making mid-season injury status and team offensive efficiency critical factors. The probability will shift based on actual production through the season, with early-season performance establishing baselines and trades or injuries potentially creating significant swings in either direction. Key factors: - Target share trends: Lamb's average targets per game versus St. Brown's target volume in their respective offenses through the season - Scoring efficiency: Red zone opportunity frequency and touchdown conversion rates for each player relative to their baseline expectations - Injury status and availability: Any significant injuries to either player or their primary quarterbacks affecting offensive production - Team offensive performance: Changes in Cowboys and Lions scoring pace, pace-of-play, or offensive coordinator adjustments that affect receiver workload - Bye week timing and strength of schedule: Opponent defenses faced in critical weeks may differentially impact final point totals Contracts: - Trey McBride scores more fantasy points than Brock Bowers in the 2026-27 regular season: Trey McBride — 68¢ Kalshi $96 (weight 99%) - Josh Allen scores more fantasy points than Lamar Jackson in the 2026-27 regular season: Josh Allen — 18¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Saquon Barkley scores more fantasy points than Derrick Henry in the 2026-27 regular season: Saquon Barkley — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Derrick Henry scores more fantasy points than Saquon Barkley in the 2026-27 regular season: Derrick Henry — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Puka Nacua scores more fantasy points than Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 2026-27 regular season: Puka Nacua — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores more fantasy points than Puka Nacua in the 2026-27 regular season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Patrick Mahomes scores more fantasy points than Matthew Stafford in the 2026-27 regular season: Patrick Mahomes — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Matthew Stafford scores more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes in the 2026-27 regular season: Matthew Stafford — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:00.869Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflffh2hseason Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CeeDee%20Lamb%20scores%20more%20fantasy%20points%20than%20Amon-Ra%20St.%20Brown%20in%20the%202026-27%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev