27% — Will Bijan Robinson be a top 5 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 27% · 20 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:15 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 14% chance that Bijan Robinson finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as a top-5 fantasy running back. Robinson enters the season after three years of NFL experience with the Atlanta Falcons, competing in a crowded field of elite backs for league-wide scoring volume and efficiency. His probability reflects both the talent threshold required to reach top-5 status—a position typically claimed by 5-6 elite performers from 32 teams—and uncertainty about his 2026 offensive environment, coaching changes, and injury status. The market will resolve once fantasy football scoring is finalized in January 2027, with the outcome depending largely on carries, receiving opportunities, and touchdown production relative to other elite backs. Key drivers include the Falcons' offensive scheme changes, whether Robinson maintains a feature-back role, and how competing backs perform across the league. Key factors: - Robinson's average carries and target share per game during the 2026 season compared to historical levels and other projected top-5 backs - Changes to the Falcons' offensive coaching staff, play-calling philosophy, or running back rotation since the 2025 season - Injury status of Robinson and competing elite RBs (Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and other top-volume backs) throughout the season - Red-zone touches and touchdown opportunities allocated to Robinson versus other Falcons offensive weapons - Robinson's rushing and receiving yards per game in 2026 versus the typical statistical thresholds for top-5 fantasy RB finishes in recent seasons Contracts: - Will Fernando Mendoza be a top 10 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Fernando Mendoza — 10¢ Kalshi $512 (weight 51%) - Will Malik Willis be a top 10 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Malik Willis — 25¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 22%) - Will Malik Nabers be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Malik Nabers — 27¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 10%) - Will Jadarian Price be a top 10 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jadarian Price — 12¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 8%) - Will Dalton Kincaid be a top 10 fantasy TE in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Dalton Kincaid — 31¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 5%) - Will De'Von Achane be a top 10 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: De'Von Achane — 45¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 2%) - Will Ja'Marr Chase be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 53¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will Jaylen Waddle be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaylen Waddle — 16¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.350Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflffleadertop Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bijan%20Robinson%20be%20a%20top%205%20fantasy%20RB%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev