47% — Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
Kalshi 47% · 20 contracts · $35K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 11:51:23 UTC

Why this matters:
The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.

Key factors:
- Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
- Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
- Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
- Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
- Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup

Contracts:
- Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins?: Chicago — 58¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 43%)
- Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game: Green Bay wins?: Green Bay — 46¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 10%)
- Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game: Dallas wins?: Dallas — 59¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game: Denver wins?: Denver — 43¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game: Las Vegas wins?: Las Vegas — 63¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Carolina wins?: Carolina — 40¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game: Buffalo wins?: Buffalo — 48¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game: New York G wins?: New York G — 40¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:45.255Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Bay%20win%20the%20Green%20Bay%20vs%20Minnesota%20Pro%20Football%20game
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev