48% — Will New York J record more wins than Las Vegas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $54 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 13:00:01 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that bettors currently view Las Vegas as more likely to win more regular-season games than New York in the 2026-27 NFL season. The 28% figure reflects expectations about relative team strength, roster composition, and coaching quality entering the season. Key drivers of this probability include the current perceived quality gap between the two franchises based on recent performance, offseason roster moves, and draft acquisitions. The most significant uncertainty resolver will be the start of the 2026-27 regular season in September 2026, when actual win-loss records begin to accumulate. Until then, the probability may shift based on injury reports, preseason performance, and any major trades or coaching changes. Key factors: - Las Vegas's recent playoff history and current roster depth compared to New York's recent performance trajectory - Offseason roster moves, free agency signings, and draft picks for both teams between now and September 2026 - Injury status of key players for each team entering the 2026-27 regular season - Head coaching stability and staff changes that could impact team performance - Preseason game outcomes and performance metrics from August-September 2026 Contracts: - Will Buffalo record more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Buffalo — 34¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 52%) - Will Chicago record more wins than Cincinnati in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chicago — 30¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 38%) - Will Philadelphia record more wins than Buffalo in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Philadelphia — 31¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 10%) - Will Tampa Bay record more wins than Pittsburgh in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Tampa Bay — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Pittsburgh record more wins than Tampa Bay in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Pittsburgh — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Seattle record more wins than Los Angeles R in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Seattle — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Los Angeles R record more wins than Seattle in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Los Angeles R — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York J record more wins than Las Vegas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: New York J — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:21:00.162Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflh2hwins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20York%20J%20record%20more%20wins%20than%20Las%20Vegas%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev