46% — Will the team with the last pick of the draft select a Linebacker with the last pick Kalshi 46% · 6 contracts · $392 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 02:48:49 UTC Why this matters: This market predicts whether the team selecting last in the 2026 NFL Draft will use that pick on a linebacker. At 52%, the probability reflects near-even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about both draft strategy and available player positions. The current probability level reflects the unpredictable nature of the 29th overall pick—teams often use late first-round picks to address positional needs that persist after earlier rounds, and linebacker demand varies annually based on free agency activity and injury history. The primary factor driving this probability is which teams hold the last pick and their specific roster gaps. The resolution event is the 2026 NFL Draft itself, where the final pick will be announced and its player position will become clear. Key factors: - The team with the last pick's existing linebacker depth and defensive scheme priorities at draft time - Overall supply and demand for linebackers in the 2026 draft class relative to other positions - How many elite linebacker prospects are available and reach the late first round without being selected earlier - Whether significant linebacker injuries or free agency departures occur during the offseason before the draft - Historical patterns of how often late first-round picks are used on linebacker positions across recent NFL drafts Contracts: - Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026?: Yes — 26¢ Kalshi $269 (weight 69%) - Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: A new location in Illinois — 55¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 31%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Florida be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Florida — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jul 2027 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Stays with Buffalo or Retires — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T02:20:49.934Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfllastpickpos Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20team%20with%20the%20last%20pick%20of%20the%20draft%20select%20a%20Linebacker%20with%20the%20last%20pick Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev