6% — Will Arizona be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 6% · 12 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:14 UTC Why this matters: This contract estimates a 20% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as the last remaining undefeated team. The probability reflects both Arizona's roster strength and the statistical rarity of any team going undefeated through a 17-game season. Key drivers include Arizona's defensive capabilities, injury rates to key players, and schedule strength relative to other contenders. Denver (28%) and Detroit (7%) are priced higher and lower respectively, suggesting market participants view Arizona as middle-tier among undefeated contenders. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the opening weeks of the season, as teams that suffer early losses are eliminated from consideration. By mid-season, the field typically narrows significantly, making September and October performance the most informative period for updating these probabilities. Key factors: - Arizona's win-loss record through Week 8 will largely determine their remaining probability, as undefeated teams rarely emerge past mid-season - Injury status of Arizona's starting quarterback and top defensive players during the regular season will directly impact game outcomes - Schedule difficulty comparison: Arizona's strength of schedule against Denver and Detroit's will influence relative probabilities across competing contracts - Historical NFL data shows approximately 1-3 teams remain undefeated past Week 4, making 20% a relatively high single-team probability - Trading volume on this contract has been minimal ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in establishing Arizona as distinct from other contenders Contracts: - Will Baltimore be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Baltimore — 8¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 39%) - Will Buffalo be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Buffalo — 4¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 38%) - Will Green Bay be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Green Bay — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - Will Chicago be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chicago — 3¢ Kalshi $469 (weight 4%) - Will Los Angeles R be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Los Angeles R — 9¢ Kalshi $441 (weight 4%) - Will Kansas City be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Kansas City — 8¢ Kalshi $422 (weight 4%) - Will Detroit be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Detroit — 8¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 1%) - Will Dallas be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Dallas — 3¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 1%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.748Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfllasttolose Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Arizona%20be%20the%20last%20undefeated%20team%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev