14% — 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup
Kalshi 14% · 14 contracts · $865 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:44 UTC

Why this matters:
This 39% probability represents the likelihood that two Los Angeles teams will face each other in the 2026-27 championship game. The market is pricing this outcome based on the current strength of Los Angeles teams relative to other AFC and NFC contenders. The probability would move higher if Los Angeles teams dominate their conferences through the regular season and playoffs, or lower if teams like Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, or New Orleans emerge as stronger threats. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the 2026-27 NFL season and playoffs, concluding with the championship game scheduled for early 2027.

Key factors:
- Contract pricing shows 4¢ for LA vs LA versus 50¢ for Denver vs San Francisco, indicating the LA matchup is viewed as substantially less likely than other top scenarios
- Los Angeles Chargers and Rams would need to each win their respective conference championships, requiring them to outperform current AFC and NFC favorites
- Trading volume on the LA vs LA contract ($119 in 24h) is significantly higher than Buffalo vs LA ($5), suggesting more confidence in that matchup's relevance
- The NFC Championship contract between New Orleans and Seattle is priced at 95¢, indicating extremely low probability for that specific matchup
- Regular season performance from late 2026 through January 2027 playoffs will be the primary driver of movement in this probability

Contracts:
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Cincinnati vs San Francisco: Cincinnati vs San Francisco — 18¢ Kalshi $263 (weight 30%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Buffalo vs Los Angeles R: Buffalo vs Los Angeles R — 5¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 27%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R — 4¢ Kalshi $156 (weight 18%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Denver vs Los Angeles R: Denver vs Los Angeles R — 3¢ Kalshi $116 (weight 13%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R: Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R — 9¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 11%)
- 2026-27 NFC Championship Matchup: Green Bay vs Los Angeles R: Green Bay vs Los Angeles R — 4¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Baltimore vs Dallas: Baltimore vs Dallas — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Buffalo vs Detroit: Buffalo vs Detroit — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:50.715Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflmatchup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026-27%20Championship%20Game%20Matchup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev