7% — Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP
Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $44K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 13:04:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This 6% probability represents market expectation that Lamar Jackson will win the 2026 NFL MVP award. The market reflects competition from other strong quarterback prospects, particularly second-year standouts like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye who command similar odds, alongside established performers like Jordan Love and Brock Purdy. Jackson's MVP chances would increase if he demonstrates exceptional statistical performance through the regular season or if other leading candidates underperform due to injury or decline. The probability will be clarified through the 2026 NFL regular season (approximately September 2026 through early January 2027), with voting occurring after Week 17 to determine the final award winner. Market odds will shift substantially based on weekly performance, cumulative statistics, and injury developments for all top contenders.

Key factors:
- Jackson's statistical performance relative to other quarterbacks through 17 regular season games, particularly in yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage
- Injury status of Jackson and competing candidates throughout the 2026 season, as absences significantly reduce MVP eligibility
- Team wins and playoff positioning, as voters historically favor players on successful franchises
- Narrative momentum in national media coverage, which influences voter perception in close statistical competitions
- Historical voting patterns showing most MVP awards go to top-3 statistical performers, making raw performance metrics a primary driver

Contracts:
- Will Dak Prescott win the MVP?: Dak Prescott — 6¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 35%)
- Will Jordan Love win the MVP?: Jordan Love — 4¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 26%)
- Will Brock Purdy win the MVP?: Brock Purdy — 4¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%)
- Will Drake Maye win the MVP?: Drake Maye — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%)
- Will Josh Allen win the MVP?: Josh Allen — 10¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%)
- Will Justin Herbert win the MVP?: Justin Herbert — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Caleb Williams win the MVP?: Caleb Williams — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP?: Lamar Jackson — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T12:20:49.205Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflmvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lamar%20Jackson%20win%20the%20MVP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev