6% — Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP Kalshi 6% · 11 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:34 UTC Why this matters: The 5% probability reflects the current market assessment that Lamar Jackson has a minimal chance of winning the 2026 NFL MVP award. This low probability suggests the market expects other quarterbacks—particularly Joe Burrow at 8%—to have stronger seasons or more compelling narratives. MVP voting typically rewards statistical excellence combined with team success and media narrative; Jackson's chances would rise with exceptional passing efficiency, volume statistics, or significant team wins, and would fall if other elite performances emerge across the league. The primary catalyst determining this outcome will be the full 2026 NFL season performance from September through December, with the award announcement typically occurring in early 2027 during NFL awards presentations. Since we are currently in May 2026, substantial uncertainty remains about who will perform best across the entire season. Key factors: - Joe Burrow commands 8% probability compared to Jackson's 5%, suggesting market consensus favors Burrow's MVP chances based on current expectations or recent performance - The MVP award typically goes to a player with top-5 league-wide statistics in key metrics (passing yards, touchdowns, QB rating, passer rating) combined with strong team record - Jackson would need elite statistical production across the full 16-game season plus a compelling narrative advantage over other elite performers to overcome current market pricing - Contract volumes and pricing differences across MVP candidates reflect available information about roster construction, preseason performance, and injury status as of May 2026 - The outcome depends entirely on aggregate performance data from the 2026 NFL regular season (September-December), making current probabilities highly provisional given the temporal distance Contracts: - Will Justin Herbert win the MVP?: Justin Herbert — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 29%) - Will Josh Allen win the MVP?: Josh Allen — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%) - Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP?: Lamar Jackson — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%) - Will Caleb Williams win the MVP?: Caleb Williams — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%) - Will Dak Prescott win the MVP?: Dak Prescott — 5¢ Kalshi $922 (weight 11%) - Will Trevor Lawrence win the MVP?: Trevor Lawrence — 3¢ Kalshi $469 (weight 6%) - Will Joe Burrow win the MVP?: Joe Burrow — 9¢ Kalshi $413 (weight 5%) - Will Patrick Mahomes win the MVP?: Patrick Mahomes — 6¢ Kalshi $409 (weight 5%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.189Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflmvp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lamar%20Jackson%20win%20the%20MVP Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev