21% — Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football
Kalshi 21% · 15 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 08:48:48 UTC

Why this matters:
This 6% probability reflects the market's assessment that Dan Quinn will be the first NFL head coach to be fired or resign. Quinn is currently in his first season as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys after spending 2024 as their defensive coordinator. The low probability relative to peers like Aaron Glenn (11%) suggests market confidence in Quinn's position despite any early-season performance questions. Key factors include the Cowboys' win-loss record through the season, organizational stability under owner Jerry Jones, and whether mid-season performance triggers front office changes. The main uncertainty resolver will be the Cowboys' performance through Week 8-9 and any public statements from ownership about coaching decisions. Coaches with established organizational support and multi-year contracts typically face lower removal probability early in their tenure.

Key factors:
- Dallas Cowboys' win-loss record and playoff positioning through mid-season; teams significantly underperforming expectations increase coaching change likelihood
- Public statements from Cowboys owner Jerry Jones regarding Quinn's job security and the team's direction
- Quinn's performance metrics compared to peer coaches (Aaron Glenn at 11%, Dave Canales at 8%) suggesting relative confidence in his role
- Dallas roster quality and injury status affecting on-field performance and pressure on coaching staff
- Contract terms and financial commitment to Quinn; longer guaranteed deals reduce firing likelihood

Contracts:
- Will Matt LaFleur be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Matt LaFleur — 32¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 91%)
- Will Todd Bowles be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Todd Bowles — 11¢ Kalshi $346 (weight 7%)
- Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dan Quinn — 18¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 1%)
- Will DeMeco Ryans be the next coach out in Pro Football?: DeMeco Ryans — 5¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 1%)
- Will Shane Steichen be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Shane Steichen — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Aaron Glenn be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Aaron Glenn — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dan Campbell be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dan Campbell — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dave Canales be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dave Canales — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T08:20:49.479Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnextcoachout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dan%20Quinn%20be%20the%20next%20coach%20out%20in%20Pro%20Football
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev