24% — Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026
Kalshi 24% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that defensive tackle Vita Vea signs with a new team by December 1, 2026. Currently at 20% for Tampa Bay as the leader, with the New York Jets close behind at 19%, the market suggests Vea is more likely to remain with his current team or pursue free agency later than to change teams imminently. The probability hinges on whether Vea's contract negotiations with Tampa Bay reach a conclusion before year-end, and whether competing teams make aggressive pursuit efforts. The NFL's 2026 free agency period and any contract extension announcements will be the primary drivers of movement. With roughly four months until the deadline, uncertainty remains high, as teams may wait until the offseason to make significant moves, and Vea's decision-making timeline remains unclear.

Key factors:
- Vita Vea's current contract status and extension negotiations with Tampa Bay will directly determine if he remains or becomes available
- The New York Jets' interest level and salary cap flexibility could influence whether they make a competitive offer before December 1
- Free agency patterns in the NFL typically accelerate in the offseason rather than mid-year, which would delay any team change past the December deadline
- Injury status or performance metrics for Vea during the remainder of the 2026 season could affect both his market value and negotiation leverage
- Teams' playoff positioning and defensive needs in November could create urgency to pursue defensive help before the deadline

Contracts:
- Will Levis' next team before Dec 1, 2026: Atlanta: Atlanta — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Arizona: Arizona — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Chicago: Chicago — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Denver: Denver — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Jacksonville: Jacksonville — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:50.141Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnextteam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Vita%20Vea's%20next%20team%20before%20Dec%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev