9% — Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship Kalshi 9% · 10 contracts · $21K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:33 UTC Why this matters: The 9% probability reflects market expectations that the Los Angeles Rams will win the NFC Championship game scheduled for early February 2027. This estimate positions the Rams as a long-shot contender, trailing San Francisco (8¢) and Seattle (11¢) among NFC teams. The Rams' low odds likely reflect concerns about roster depth, recent performance trends, or questions about quarterback durability entering the 2026 season. The probability would shift significantly based on the team's regular-season performance from September through December 2026, with strong starts potentially doubling their odds or weak performances pushing them lower. The championship game outcome in February 2027 will ultimately resolve this market, though most movement occurs during the regular season as win-loss records clarify playoff positioning. Trading volume on the Rams contract remains modest at $1,205 over 24 hours compared to higher-probability teams. Key factors: - Rams regular season record through December 2026 will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with each win or loss materially affecting playoff positioning odds - San Francisco and Seattle's 8-11¢ odds suggest the NFC is viewed as dominated by 2-3 teams, constraining the Rams' ceiling even if they perform well - Lower 24-hour trading volume ($1,205) on the Rams contract versus San Francisco ($14,964) indicates reduced market confidence or speculative interest in longer-shot outcomes - Quarterback health and offensive line performance during the 2026 regular season will directly impact the team's ability to reach and win the championship game - The Rams must finish among the top 2 seeds in their division or secure a wild card position to reach the playoffs, making September-November performance critical for championship probability Contracts: - Will San Francisco win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: San Francisco — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 23%) - Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Dallas — 8¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 19%) - Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Chicago — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 16%) - Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Los Angeles R — 22¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 13%) - Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Philadelphia — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Detroit — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Minnesota — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Seattle — 12¢ Kalshi $565 (weight 3%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-28T11:20:52.490Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnfcchamp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20R%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20NFC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev