8% — Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship Kalshi 8% · 11 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts whether the Los Angeles R will win the NFC Championship during the 2026 NFL season, currently priced at 8% probability. The relatively low odds reflect that winning a conference championship requires sustained success through multiple playoff rounds—typically only two of 16 teams per conference advance that far. Key drivers for this probability include the team's current roster strength, injury status heading into the season, and their playoff track record. The primary catalyst for price movement will be the team's regular season performance from September through December 2026, with significant shifts likely after key divisional matchups and as the playoff picture clarifies in late autumn. The market will ultimately resolve when the 2027 NFC Championship game is played in early January. Key factors: - Los Angeles R's regular season win-loss record through Week 17 of the 2026 NFL season (directly affects playoff seeding and matchup difficulty) - Health and availability of key offensive and defensive players heading into and throughout the 2026 season - Historical playoff performance: whether the team has demonstrated championship-caliber execution in previous postseason appearances - Strength of competing NFC teams and divisional performance relative to Los Angeles R's conference peers - The team's performance in critical September-December games that typically determine playoff qualification and seeding Contracts: - Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Los Angeles R — 24¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 24%) - Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Chicago — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%) - Will San Francisco win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: San Francisco — 6¢ Kalshi $895 (weight 16%) - Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Philadelphia — 9¢ Kalshi $628 (weight 11%) - Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Seattle — 10¢ Kalshi $601 (weight 11%) - Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Dallas — 8¢ Kalshi $382 (weight 7%) - Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Detroit — 8¢ Kalshi $225 (weight 4%) - Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: Green Bay — 8¢ Kalshi $219 (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.827Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnfcchamp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20R%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20NFC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev