24% — Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Kalshi 24% · 4 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that betting markets assign a 25% chance Detroit wins the NFC North division title in the 2026 NFL season. The market prices Detroit slightly below Green Bay (26%) but well ahead of Chicago (21%) and Minnesota (19%), suggesting relatively balanced competition across the division. The probability reflects expectations about roster strength, quarterback performance, and playoff positioning. Key drivers include whether Detroit's offensive weapons remain healthy, how effectively the defense performs against divisional rivals, and whether the team can sustain recent competitive improvements. The division winner will be determined through the 17-game regular season concluding in early January 2027, with playoff implications finalized by the end of the season. Current market depth appears limited, with the Detroit contract showing $808 in 24-hour volume compared to over $8,400 for the Minnesota contract, suggesting less trading interest or conviction around Detroit's chances relative to division peers.

Key factors:
- Detroit's quarterback health and offensive line performance throughout the 2026 regular season
- Win-loss records in head-to-head matchups between Detroit and other NFC North teams
- Whether Detroit's defense maintains or improves on previous season performance metrics against divisional opponents
- Injury status of key players on competitive division rivals (Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago) as season progresses
- Playoff positioning and tiebreaker scenarios in final weeks that could affect division title outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago — 35¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 50%)
- Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Detroit — 26¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 24%)
- Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota — 19¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%)
- Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Green Bay — 17¢ Kalshi $795 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:51.537Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnfcnorth
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Detroit%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20NFC%20North%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev