25% — Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $677 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:45:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market estimates that Detroit has a 26% chance of winning the NFC North Division in the 2026 NFL season. The Lions' division prospects depend on their competitive standing relative to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago—teams with established quarterback situations and playoff histories. Factors affecting this estimate include Detroit's offseason roster moves, injury status of key players, and performance through early season games. The division outcome will be determined through regular season play, with meaningful data points emerging as teams play through fall 2026. Current market pricing suggests investors view Detroit as a viable but not favored contender in a competitive division.

Key factors:
- Detroit's current roster composition and any major offseason acquisitions or departures compared to division rivals
- Historical win-loss performance of Detroit versus other NFC North teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- Quarterback performance and health status for Detroit and competing teams entering the 2026 season
- Injury trends affecting key defensive and offensive contributors for all four division teams
- Head-to-head scheduling and strength of schedule effects within the division for the 2026 season

Contracts:
- Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota — 16¢ Kalshi $535 (weight 79%)
- Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Detroit — 34¢ Kalshi $143 (weight 21%)
- Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Green Bay — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T08:20:12.679Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnfcnorth
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Detroit%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20NFC%20North%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev