32% — Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC West Division
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $299 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the 33% probability that the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The Rams compete directly with other strong franchises in a competitive division, making their odds moderate rather than prohibitive. Key drivers of this probability include the Rams' roster composition and quarterback performance relative to division rivals like the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, as well as coaching changes and injury trajectories throughout the offseason. The primary uncertainty resolves over the 2026 NFL regular season (typically September through December), with playoff implications determined by end-of-season standings. Momentum could shift based on preseason performance, draft results, and free-agent signings over the coming months.

Key factors:
- Current Rams roster depth and projected starting lineup compared to other NFC West contenders entering the 2026 season
- Performance of the Rams' starting quarterback and whether key offensive or defensive personnel are healthy through training camp
- Strength of schedule relative to division rivals and head-to-head matchup outcomes during the regular season
- Management decisions on trades, free agency, or coaching staff that materially alter team composition before Week 1
- Recent draft performance and rookie contributor impact in the first season for new players

Contracts:
- Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC West Division?: Los Angeles R — 48¢ Kalshi $283 (weight 94%)
- Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC West Division?: Seattle — 27¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 5%)
- Will San Francisco win the Pro Football NFC West Division?: San Francisco — 20¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.851Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflnfcwest
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20R%20win%20the%20Pro%20Football%20NFC%20West%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev