5% — Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year
Kalshi 5% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:52 UTC

Why this matters:
The 5% probability reflects market expectations that Christian McCaffrey will not win NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2026. This low probability suggests traders believe other players are substantially more likely to claim the award. The current level likely reflects McCaffrey's performance through early May, including any injuries, statistics accumulated, or role changes on his team. The probability would increase if McCaffrey puts up elite statistical numbers in upcoming games or if other top candidates underperform. The key catalyst for resolution will be the NFL season's final games in December, followed by voting and the award announcement, typically in February 2027. Until then, weekly performance updates, injury reports, and trades could shift expectations meaningfully.

Key factors:
- McCaffrey's statistical performance (rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions) through the remainder of 2026 relative to other elite offensive players
- Injury status and availability—any significant injuries would likely reduce his award chances substantially
- Competition from other star offensive players (quarterbacks, receivers, running backs) and their respective performance levels
- Team success and media narratives around individual vs. team accomplishments, which influence voting patterns for individual awards
- Volume of trading activity and contract pricing on related markets suggesting relative confidence in competing candidates

Contracts:
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 4¢ Kalshi $830 (weight 41%)
- Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Justin Jefferson — 4¢ Kalshi $537 (weight 27%)
- Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Bijan Robinson — 7¢ Kalshi $333 (weight 17%)
- Will Jonathan Taylor win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jonathan Taylor — 5¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 12%)
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 9¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 3%)
- Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Christian McCaffrey — 4¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 1%)
- Will Ashton Jeanty win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Ashton Jeanty — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:49.615Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflopoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Christian%20McCaffrey%20win%20the%20Offensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev