6% — Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year Kalshi 6% · 10 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:58 UTC Why this matters: This 6% probability indicates traders assess Christian McCaffrey has roughly a 1-in-17 chance of winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability reflects McCaffrey's competition from multiple elite offensive performers, particularly running backs Bijan Robinson (10¢) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12¢), who command higher market prices. McCaffrey's award probability would likely increase if he leads the league in rushing yards, receiving yards, or total touchdowns, or decrease if injuries limit his playing time or if other skill players significantly outperform him statistically. The resolution depends on final 2026 NFL regular season statistics, typically announced in early 2027 when award voting concludes. Historical OPOY voting often favors players with league-leading statistical categories and high touchdown production. Key factors: - McCaffrey's statistical ranking compared to Robinson, Gibbs, and other elite offensive skill position players in yards and touchdowns during the 2026 season - Injury status and games played, as OPOY voters typically weight availability and durability when comparing candidates - Whether McCaffrey accumulates league-leading totals in any major offensive category (rushing yards, receiving yards, total TDs) - Competition intensity from running back peers, as RB-dominated OPOY outcomes require significantly higher per-game production than other positions - Red zone touches and touchdown conversion rate relative to other top offensive performers Contracts: - Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 47%) - Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Ja'Marr Chase — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 26%) - Will Puka Nacua win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Puka Nacua — 8¢ Kalshi $603 (weight 12%) - Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 4¢ Kalshi $354 (weight 7%) - Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Christian McCaffrey — 4¢ Kalshi $188 (weight 4%) - Will James Cook III win the Offensive Player of the Year?: James Cook III — 3¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 2%) - Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Bijan Robinson — 10¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 2%) - Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Justin Jefferson — 4¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:50.087Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflopoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Christian%20McCaffrey%20win%20the%20Offensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev