12% — Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:52 UTC Why this matters: This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Jadarian Price has a relatively modest chance of winning the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Price's current market price of 11 cents places him fourth among tracked candidates, well behind Fernando Mendoza at 24 cents but close to Jordyn Tyson at 12 cents. The probability is shaped primarily by Price's statistical performance relative to other rookie offensive players and his opportunity level within his team's offensive scheme. As the 2026 NFL season progresses through the fall, playing time, production metrics, and comparative performance against other rookie contenders will drive this probability up or down. The award itself will be determined in early 2027 based on the full regular season record, making ongoing weekly performance data the key driver of market movements. Key factors: - Price's actual playing time and snap count compared to other top rookie offensive candidates through the season - His offensive statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, rushing performance depending on position) relative to Mendoza, Beck, Lemon, and Tyson - Team offensive scheme changes, injuries to starters, or coaching decisions that affect Price's role and opportunities - Market volume and trading patterns show Mendoza at 24 cents commands significantly higher confidence, indicating Price faces structured competition - The award voting typically rewards peak statistical performance in either passing or rushing categories, making efficiency metrics critical to Price's case Contracts: - Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck — 3¢ Kalshi $734 (weight 30%) - Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate — 13¢ Kalshi $688 (weight 28%) - Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love — 21¢ Kalshi $289 (weight 12%) - Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 23¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 11%) - Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon — 7¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 10%) - Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson — 13¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 6%) - Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 9¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 3%) - Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:50.203Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfloroty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jadarian%20Price%20win%20the%20Offensive%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev