9% — Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Kalshi 9% · 7 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 12:23:23 UTC Why this matters: Jadarian Price has an 8% probability of winning the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award, based on aggregated betting data from Kalshi markets. This reflects the market's assessment that Price is a mid-tier candidate among 2026 rookie offensive players. The probability is primarily influenced by Price's statistical performance through the 2026 season compared to other rookies, his team's offensive system and playing time allocation, and voter preference patterns in previous years. The award will be formally decided in early 2027 when voters cast ballots based on the complete regular season record. Key variables include whether Price maintains consistent production through December, how his stats compare to frontrunners like Fernando Mendoza (currently priced higher at 12%), and whether injuries to competing rookies or Price himself affect their relative candidacy. The market pricing suggests Price is viewed as having meaningful but limited chances relative to the field. Key factors: - Price's cumulative statistics through the 2026 regular season will be the primary determining factor, with volume metrics (receptions, yards, touchdowns) directly comparable to competing rookies - Playing time availability and team offensive scheme utilization determine Price's statistical ceiling—reduced snap counts or offensive changes would lower his chances - Fernando Mendoza and other higher-priced candidates currently have better market positioning, implying they have performed more strongly through August 2026 - The voting patterns and specific criteria used by award voters may favor certain statistical categories or narrative elements that could advantage or disadvantage Price relative to raw numbers - Injuries to Price or competing rookies could materially shift probabilities if they affect availability for the final stretch of the season Contracts: - Will Denzel Boston win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Denzel Boston — 9¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 35%) - Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%) - Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%) - Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%) - Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate — 6¢ Kalshi $476 (weight 5%) - Will Jonah Coleman win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jonah Coleman — 3¢ Kalshi $409 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.209Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfloroty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jadarian%20Price%20win%20the%20Offensive%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev