48% — Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:16 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly even odds of making the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' postseason chances depend primarily on their win-loss record this fall and whether they can compete in what appears to be a competitive NFC landscape. Key drivers include quarterback performance and health, the strength of their division rivals, and roster composition heading into the season. The resolution of this contract will come after the regular season concludes in early 2027, when playoff seeding is officially determined. Until then, week-to-week performance during the 2026 NFL season will be the primary signal affecting market expectations. Key factors: - Minnesota's 2025 regular season record and current roster composition relative to NFC playoff contenders - Quarterback health and performance, particularly if key defensive or offensive contributors are available through the season - Competitive strength of the NFC North division, especially relative to Green Bay and Detroit performance - Win-loss trajectory through the 2026 season, with specific attention to games in weeks 13-18 when playoff positioning typically clarifies - Comparison to other teams' playoff odds, particularly teams priced between 10¢ and 31¢ like New York Giants, Carolina, and Las Vegas Contracts: - Will New York J be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: New York J — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 35%) - Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Minnesota — 38¢ Kalshi $738 (weight 16%) - Will New York G be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: New York G — 28¢ Kalshi $368 (weight 8%) - Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Las Vegas — 17¢ Kalshi $295 (weight 6%) - Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Cincinnati — 61¢ Kalshi $275 (weight 6%) - Will Chicago be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Chicago — 48¢ Kalshi $199 (weight 4%) - Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Baltimore — 72¢ Kalshi $137 (weight 3%) - Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Atlanta — 31¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 3%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.892Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflplayoff Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Minnesota%20be%20one%20of%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20playoff%20qualifiers Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev